I had On-Call duties on Christmas day this year. Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse. Nor any phone calls. But that was just fine. More than one BancWise agent has mentioned that it’s been kind of nice to have some down time towards the end of 2022.
The end of year is a good time to glance back and also formulate goals and plans for next year. Last week we were reminded to turn in the end of year Revenue Reports. The statistical review of production for the year. It was interesting to see the numbers, but more so it was rewarding to review the client names. Most, if not everyone at BancWise, would likely agree that the interaction with the clients is almost as rewarding as the checks. Well, almost.
One sunny spring afternoon a few years ago, a National Meteorologist (weatherman) was being interviewed on the radio about the current weather pattern. They were discussing the impact that the current La Nina or El Nino system would have on the weather. After explaining the complexities of prevailing wind patterns, temperatures, humidity, and other impressive meteorological terms, the expert was asked an important question. ‘So, what does that mean for us this year?’
In his best weatherman voice, the expert explained that this system would bring in “lower than normal temperatures with higher-than-average precipitation”. Then without hesitation he concluded with “Or maybe not.” You have to admire his honesty. It might be colder, and it might rain. But then again, it might not.
When asked about the accuracy of weather predictions, our very own State Climatologist put it this way. “We get it right about 60% of the time. But remember, the odds in just flipping a coin is 50%.”
The opposite of predict is a seldom used word, retrodict. The dictionary defines PREDICT: to declare or indicate in advance, foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason. RETRODICT: to utilize present information or ideas to infer or explain a past event or state of affairs.
At BancWise it would be the difference between goals and the year-end revenue report. There are no “or maybe nots” in the final revenue report. Just the raw numerical facts. The goals for 2023 however are full of them. That is precisely why we are encouraged to control the controllables. Predicting the outcome of things that we have limited or no control over is a tricky task. Business, like the weather and life, has many moving parts. Some we can influence. But most are beyond our control. Best to focus on those elements that we stand a chance of having at least some degree of influence.
A wise doctor once told me to focus on what we know, and not worry about what might be. Every time I hear a weather prediction in my mind, I always add a “or maybe not”. Chance of 99” of snow this week … or maybe not. The media loves negativity. “Mortgage rates continue to climb. Markets collapses likely. Next year could be a tough year for real estate”, just remember … OR MAYBE NOT.
What we do know is that BancWise is a great business, with lots of wonderful people. There is a100% certainty that we will have caring people around us regardless of what the un-controllables throw our way. I like those odds.
Wishing everyone a happy and healthy New Year!
